Kamala Harris Gets Good News in Swing State, Poll Shows

Vice President Kamala Harris has scored one of her largest leads in Wisconsin against former President Donald Trump, according to a poll released on Monday, although the overall race for the critical battleground state remains close.
The survey was conducted by The MassINC Polling Group in the days following the candidates’ first debate on September 10 and found that Harris was ahead in Wisconsin by 7 percentage points, leading Trump 53 to 46 percent in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.
In a multi-candidate race, where former independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Jill Stein were included on the ballot, Harris was ahead by 6 percentage points, leading Trump 51 to 45 percent. The poll was conducted between September 12 and 18 and includes the responses of 800 likely voters. The poll’s margin of error is 3.8 percent.
Newsweek has reached out to Harris’ and Trump’s campaigns via email for comment on Monday.
Wisconsin, which President Joe Biden flipped for Democrats in 2020 after Trump won the state in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, is one of the most watched contests ahead of November’s election. According to tracking by RealClear Polling, Harris is ahead of the former president in the Badger State by just 1 percentage point on average.
In comparison, Biden was leading in the state by 6.9 percentage points in September 2020. He only won the state against Trump by 0.63 percentage points, around 20,000 votes.
In a poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies and The Telegraph released on Monday, Harris and Trump were tied in Wisconsin at 47 percent, based on the responses of 600 likely voters between September 16 and 19. A separate poll from Emerson College and The Hill released last week also found Trump was ahead in Wisconsin by 1 percentage point (50 to 49 percent), according to the responses of 1,000 likely voters.
Still, FiveThirtyEight’s analysis gives Harris a 1.8 percentage point lead on average in Wisconsin, and the site’s election model says that the vice president has a 61 percent chance of winning Wisconsin. In comparison, when the 2024 election was simulated 100 times by FiveThirtyEight, Trump won 39 percent of the time.
Pollster Nate Silver’s forecast model finds that the race in Wisconsin is a bit smaller, although Harris is still on top. While the vice president has a 59.7 percent chance of winning, Trump has a 40.3 percent chance.
Harris has held a slight lead above Trump for weeks across national polling, although the race remains relatively tight. Per Silver’s election model, Harris has a 53.2 percent chance of winning come November, while Trump is given a 46.6 percent chance.
By FiveThirtyEight’s estimate, Harris is also the favored winner, with a 58 percent chance of winning. Trump, on the other hand, has a 42 percent chance, according to election simulations run by the polling site.